1.9 Potential environmental effects – Offshore and Onshore ​

1.9.1 SLVIA ​

1.9.1.1 The Seascape Landscape and Visual Impact Assessment (SLVIA) assesses potential impacts of the Mona Offshore Wind Project upon the seascape, landscape character and visual resources. Seascape, landscape and visual resources and receptors refers to the existing character of the seascape, the physical elements of the landscape, landscape character, areas designated for their scenic or landscape-related qualities and views from publicly accessible locations such as Access Land, Public Rights of Way (PRoW) and transport routes. The SLVIA study area for the Mona Offshore Wind Project was agreed with statutory consultees to be a 50km area from the Mona Array Area, 20km for the offshore reactive compensation substations (within the 50km Mona Array Area study area), a 1km buffer from the Mona Proposed Onshore Development Area and 10km from the Onshore Substation.

1.9.1.2 A number of potentially significant impacts upon seascape, landscape, and visual resources and receptors associated with the construction, operations and maintenance, and decommissioning phases of the Mona Offshore Wind Project, were identified. A summary of the SLVIA findings is set out below.

1.9.1.3 The Mona Array Area would have direct effects upon Welsh Seascape Sensitivity Zone (SSZ) 2, with a smaller section of the Mona Array Area in Welsh SSZ 5 and a very small part of the Mona Array Area in English Marine Character Area (MCA) 38. The section of this seascape that would incorporate the Mona Array Area would cause very localised significant effects which would reduce with distance and is within an area partly characterised by commercial shipping and ferries, static sea infrastructure and by several operational offshore wind farms including a cluster to the southeast of the Mona Array Area off the North Wales coast, and a cluster to the northeast of the Mona Array Area off the northwest coast of England.

1.9.1.4 Regarding the area of offshore waters occupied by the Mona Array Area, a significant, adverse seascape character effect would arise during construction, operations and maintenance and decommissioning of the Mona Offshore Wind Project. The long term but reversible, significant seascape effect would extend a modest distance from the Mona Array Area across SSZ 2, SSZ 5 and MCA 38 during the operations and maintenance phase. The significant seascape effects predicted to arise during the construction, operations and maintenance, and decommissioning phases of Mona Offshore Wind Project are localised within the above SSZs and MCA and would not significantly affect these areas when considered as a whole.

1.9.1.5 No significant effects are predicted on landscape character areas during construction, operations and maintenance, and decommissioning of the Mona Offshore Wind Project generation assets. The Mona Array Area lies 28.2km from the nearest land which is North Wales – northeast Anglesey, within the Isle of Anglesey Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty (AONB) and Great Orme’s Head are the closest parts of the North Wales coast. The separation distance between these areas of coastal landscape and the Mona Array Area combined with the underlying character of the baseline seascape described previously is such that significant adverse character effects would be avoided.

1.9.1.6 No significant effects are predicted during the construction, operations and maintenance and decommissioning phases of the Mona Offshore Wind Project on nationally designated landscapes, namely Eryri National Park, Anglesey AONB and the Clwydian Range and Dee Valley AONB. The assessment concludes that the special qualities of these nationally designated landscapes would remain intact and the Mona Offshore Wind Project would not conflict with or compromise the reasons for their designation.

1.9.1.7 A significant adverse landscape effect is predicted during the construction, operations and maintenance, and decommissioning phases of the Mona Offshore Wind Project for land within either of the onshore substation options of the Mona Offshore Wind Project due to loss of pasture or arable farmland, hedgerows and mature hedgerow trees. This will directly affect the immediate landscape receptors and the footprint of the LANDMAP Aspect Area layers that the two substation options are located in. The LANDMAP Aspect Area layers adjacent to those directly affected may be indirectly affected.

1.9.1.8 There is the potential for direct significant landscape effects during the construction of the Mona Offshore Wind Project onshore cable route, due to the temporary loss of pasture or arable farmland, hedgerows and mature hedgerow trees. These direct effects include on the fabric of the Rhyd y Foel to Abergele Special Landscape Area (SLA). There will be smaller, not significant direct effects during the operations and maintenance phase and negligible effects during decommissioning. The construction of the cable route corridor will indirectly affect the Elwy and Aled Valleys SLA. The fabric of the landscape of the LANDMAP Aspect Areas that the Mona Offshore Wind Project onshore cable route passes through will be directly affected. Those LANDMAP Aspect Areas adjacent to those directly affected may be indirectly affected. These constructions effects are temporary. The operations and maintenance phase effects are not significant. The effects during the decommissioning phase will be negligible, as the cable will be left in situ.

1.9.1.9 A minor to moderate adverse significant potential effect will be experienced by people using main ferry routes during the construction and decommissioning phases, with a moderate adverse visual effect being experienced by the same receptors potentially during the operations and maintenance phase.

1.9.1.10 A significant adverse cumulative visual effect is predicted during the operations and maintenance due to the impact of the Mona Offshore Wind Project in combination with other offshore wind farms in the Irish Sea on the characteristics of the SSZs and MCA.

1.9.1.11 A significant adverse cumulative visual effect is predicted due to the impact of the Mona Offshore Wind Project alongside other plans, projects and activities considered in the CEA for people onboard the Liverpool to Douglas and Heysham to Douglas ferries during construction, operations and maintenance and decommissioning of the Mona Offshore Wind Project when passing to the east of the Mona Array Area.

1.9.1.12 A significant adverse cumulative visual effect is predicted to be experienced by users of the PRoW network, including those people on the Offa’s Dyke Path National Trail, as it crosses the Clwydian Range and Dee Valley AONB, and the Wales Coast Path, due to the impact of the Mona Offshore Wind Project in combination with other plans, projects and activities considered in the CEA. These effects will be experienced during the construction, operations and maintenance, and decommissioning phases for the Mona onshore substations and during the construction phase of the Mona onshore cable route.

1.9.1.13 A significant adverse cumulative visual effect is predicted due to the impact of the Mona Offshore Wind Project alongside other plans, projects and activities considered in the CEA during the operations and maintenance phase for people walking the Offa’s Dyke National Trail, within the Clwydian Range and Dee Valley AONB.

1.9.2 Aviation and radar ​

1.9.2.1 Aviation and radar relates to the potential interactions between the Mona Array Area and the surrounding aviation activities (e.g. aerodromes, airports, search and rescue activities).

1.9.2.2 The aviation and radar study area covers the aviation radar systems that provide radar coverage over the Mona Array Area, and which may detect the highest wind turbine blade tip height of 324m above Lowest Astronomical tide (LAT). It has been defined on the basis of the Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) Civil Aviation Publication (CAP) 764 Policy and Guidelines on Wind Turbines (CAA, 2016a) consultation zones and criteria.

1.9.2.3 The Mona Array Area would be located within a multi-layered area of lower level uncontrolled airspace and higher level Controlled Airspace (CAS). Above and surrounding the Mona Array Area, the uncontrolled airspace is used by both military and civil registered aircraft. There are no Military Practice and Exercise Areas (PEXAs) located within close enough proximity to the Mona Array Area to create an effect and consequently there will be no direct obstruction created to airborne activities conducted in PEXAs. A network of Helicopter Main Route Indicators (HMRI) is established to the east and southeast of the Mona Array Area. No HMRIs cross the Mona Array Area and they are located at a sufficient distance not to be impacted by the operation of the Mona Offshore Wind Project.

1.9.2.4 A number of potential impacts on aviation and radar, associated with the construction, operations and maintenance, and decommissioning phases of the Mona Offshore Wind Project, were identified. The impacts assessed include the creation of physical obstacles to aircraft operations and wind turbines causing interference on civil and military primary surveillance radar systems. Measures adopted as part of the Mona Offshore Wind Project (e.g. lighting and marking) were also presented.

1.9.2.5 The creation of physical obstacles to aircraft operations will take place during the construction, operations and maintenance and decommissioning phases due to the installation or removal of physical objects as part of the Mona Offshore Wind Project. This will impact upon military and other low flying operations. The significance of effect is deemed to be of minor adverse significance across all phases of the Mona Offshore Wind Project which is not significant in EIA terms.

1.9.2.6 For the interference by wind turbines on civil and military surveillance radar systems the operational wind turbines in the Mona Array Area would be theoretically detectable by the NATS Lowther Hill, St Anne’s and Great Dun Fell Primary Surveillance Radar (PSR), the Ronaldsway (IoM) Airport, the Liverpool Airport and BAE Warton PSR systems. Wind turbines detectable by a PSR system might degrade the system by creating false targets, reduce system sensitivity, create radar shadowing behind the wind turbines and saturate the radar receiver leading to clutter potentially concealing real aircraft targets. Overall, the significance of the effect with mitigation factored in is predicted to be of minor adverse significance which is not significant in EIA terms.

1.9.2.7 The cumulative effect for the creation of physical obstacles to aircraft operations is considered to be minor during all phases of the Mona Offshore Wind Project due to the regional spatial extent of the impact which is not significant in EIA terms.

1.9.2.8 The cumulative effect for the wind turbines causing interference on civil and military primary surveillance radar systems when factoring in mitigation measures is predicted to be minor adverse during the operations and maintenance phase of the Mona Offshore Wind Project which is not significant in EIA terms.

1.9.2.9 A screening of transboundary impacts has been carried out and has identified that there was no potential for significant transboundary effects with regard to aviation and radar from the Mona Offshore Wind Project upon the interests of other States.

1.9.3 Climate change ​

1.9.3.1 Climate change refers to the long-term shifts in temperatures and weather patterns that are fundamentally driven by human activities. The GHG emissions arising from the Mona Offshore Wind Project are characterised by a series of desk-based assessments and articles using published data to determine the impact of the Mona Offshore Wind Project on climate change, with the impact of the effects of climate change on the Mona Offshore Wind Project being established through the risk assessment process. The potential risks to the Mona Offshore Wind Project from a changing climate have also been assessed and reported. This is demonstrated through the supplementary technical reports in the PEIR.

1.9.3.2 A number of potential impacts on climate change, associated with the construction, operations and maintenance, and decommissioning phases of the Mona Offshore Wind Project were identified through the production of GHG emissions. A number of potential impacts of climate change were also identified through consideration of various climate related risks that may have an adverse effect upon the Mona Offshore Wind Project. Measures adopted as part of the Mona Offshore Wind Project (e.g. application of anti-corrosion protective coatings and integrated scour protection to offshore equipment) were also presented.

1.9.3.3 The construction stage impact due to the extraction of raw materials, manufacturing and transportation of materials to site have been assessed. The GHG impacts were calculated to be approximately 1,216,722 tCO2e, causing a minor adverse effect that is predicted to be not significant in EIA terms once mitigation commitments are considered. Furthermore, the operations and maintenance phase emissions predominantly arise from transportation emissions required to maintain the Mona Offshore Wind Project. Additionally, the operations and maintenance phase of the Mona Offshore Wind Project would enable the use of excess renewable electricity (avoiding generation curtailment) and the displacement of fossil fuels. When considering the avoided emissions, in addition to operations and maintenance emissions, the operational impact results in the order of approximately 2,256,417 tCO2e savings by 2064. This would result in a beneficial effect which is significant in EIA terms.

1.9.3.4 Despite the GHG emissions resulting from the construction stage of the Mona Offshore Wind Project, the magnitude of avoided emissions resulting from the operations and maintenance phase allows the Mona Offshore Wind Project to be in a position of net avoided emissions from the fourth year of operation (carbon payback period). Over the lifetime of the Mona Offshore Wind Project, it would result in 972,473 tCO2e of avoided emissions.

1.9.3.5 All developments that emit, avoid or sequester GHGs have the potential to impact the atmospheric mass of GHGs as a receptor, and so may have a cumulative impact on climate change. As such, the cumulative assessment completed within the Mona Offshore Wind Project PEIR incorporates information from other project, plans and activities. Cumulative effects due to other specific local development projects are not individually predicted but are taken into account when considering the impact of the Mona Offshore Wind Project by defining the atmospheric mass of GHGs as a high sensitivity receptor.

1.9.3.6 A screening of transboundary impacts has been carried out and any potential for significant transboundary effects with regard to climate change from the Mona Offshore Wind Project upon the interests of other States has been assessed as part of this PEIR.

1.9.3.7 All developments which emit GHGs have the potential to impact the atmospheric mass of GHGs as a receptor, and so may have a transboundary impact on climate change. Consequently, transboundary effects due to other specific international development projects are not individually identified but would be taken into account when considering the impact of the Mona Offshore Wind Project by defining the atmospheric mass of GHGs as a high sensitivity receptor. Each country has its own policy and targets concerning carbon and climate change which are intended to limit GHG emissions to acceptable levels within that country’s defined budget and international commitments.

1.9.4 Socio-economics ​

1.9.4.1 The socio-economics and community impact assessment considers the local economies and populations which are located at a number of spatial levels that might be affected by the Mona Offshore Wind Project. This includes the areas closest to offshore and onshore activities as well as other important locations that may be used to support the construction, operations and maintenance, and decommissioning activities related to the Mona Offshore Wind Project (e.g. laying cables offshore, installing wind turbines, installing onshore substation etc.). These areas are primarily related to the regions where potential support facilities (i.e. ports) within the relevant spatial levels are located, and the onshore substation which will be located within Denbighshire, North Wales. Based on these criteria, the regions assessed are North Wales and Northwest England. The assessment also considers how the Mona Offshore Wind Project might affect Wales and the UK more widely.

1.9.4.2 At this stage the PEIR notes there is potential for indirect socio-economics and community impacts on the Isle of Man as a result of cumulative shipping and navigation impacts to commercial operators (including strategic routes and lifeline ferries). However, the Applicant has made firm commitments focused on changes to the boundary and layout design of the Mona Array Area, with the intention of reducing the potential significant effects on shipping and navigation receptors. These changes will be tested and applied as part of the assessment in the Environmental Statement, including on potential indirect socio-economics and community impacts on the Isle of Man, which will be submitted for the DCO application.

1.9.4.3 The number of ports involved in the project lifetime of an offshore wind farm can vary depending on the size and location of the project. Typically, an offshore wind farm project will require multiple ports throughout its lifetime, broadly covering fabrication, marshalling, operations and maintenance, and decommissioning. Given the many variables associated with port selection during the construction phase, typical delivery models incorporate multiple ports which will each deliver the fabrication and/or marshalling needs of specific components, depending on requirements. Fabrication ports can be located anywhere in the world, whilst marshalling and operations and maintenance ports are typically located within reasonable proximity of the offshore site. The final selection of port facilities required for the Mona Offshore Wind Project has not yet been determined. The Applicant is exploring ports, supporting infrastructure and labour markets to understand the potential capabilities, capacities and availability that exists. Subject to these findings, more than one port could be used to support elements of the construction, operations and maintenance, and decommissioning phases of the Mona Offshore Wind Project as part of a wider supply chain.

1.9.4.4 The socio-economics and community impact assessment of effects also considers the tourism and recreation activities which might be affected by the Mona Offshore Wind Project. This includes areas within the Zone of Theoretical Visibility (ZTV) of the project, areas within which potential ports on the coast of North Wales and Northwest England are located, and locations associated with onshore infrastructure.

1.9.4.5 The offshore wind sector is identified as a high priority industry within national, regional and local policies across the UK. This reflects the opportunities the sector provides for supporting economic development and growth and providing jobs and incomes for UK residents. The offshore wind sector is identified as a potential employment opportunity for workers transitioning from other related industries, in particular activities that will require a significant degree of adaptation due to the continuation of efforts to decarbonise the economy.

1.9.4.6 The tourism sector is an important sector within the relevant policy environments. North Wales is known for its opportunities to experience natural landscapes, and supports a wide range of adventurous activities which draw in visitors. Northwest England has a wide range of recreation assets to offer, with a mixture of rural and urban landscapes.

1.9.4.7 A number of potential impacts on socio-economics and community associated with the construction, operations and maintenance, and decommissioning phases of the Mona Offshore Wind Project were identified. These included:

• Supporting employment and Gross Value Added (GVA) across the UK and Wales, and within the regions associated with identified potential port locations and onshore infrastructure sites
• Supporting increased employment opportunities for residents where economic impacts might be focused Potential temporary and permanent population changes resulting from workforce requirements, and the associated demand for short, medium, and long term accommodation and housing
• Potential impacts on the tourism and recreation sector.

1.9.4.8 If a port on the coast of North Wales or Northwest England is selected for the staging and installation of up to two project components, the operations and maintenance base, or decommissioning activities associated with the Mona Offshore Wind Project:

• The potential beneficial effects on economic receptors including employment, GVA, and supply chain demand in that region during construction and operations and maintenance phases are assessed to be significant in EIA terms (moderate beneficial). Potential effects in Wales are assessed to be of moderate (beneficial) significance during the construction, and operations and maintenance phases, which is significant in EIA terms. Potential effects in the UK are assessed to be of moderate (beneficial) significance during the construction phase, which is significant in EIA terms
• The potential beneficial effects on employment opportunities for residents during the construction, and operations and maintenance phases are assessed to be not significant in EIA terms (minor beneficial)
• The potential beneficial effects of population changes resulting from workforce requirements, and the associated demand for housing, accommodation and local services during the construction, and operations and maintenance phases is likely to be not significant in EIA terms (minor beneficial).

1.9.4.9 Effects during the decommissioning phase are assessed as not significant in EIA terms. The scale and duration of decommissioning activity is uncertain, and the exact approach to decommissioning is not yet confirmed as best practice at the time is not currently known.

1.9.4.10 Based on a consideration of the pathways by which tourism and recreation activities might be impacted by Mona Offshore Wind Project during the construction phase, the impact on tourism and recreation is likely to be not significant in EIA terms.

1.9.4.11 The Mona Offshore Wind Project has the potential to support existing offshore wind sector employment through contracts placed with existing enterprises, and support new employment and economic activity by enabling the expansion of the offshore wind sector which is a high policy priority.

1.9.4.12 Cumulative effects with other plans and projects were assessed and predicted as likely to result in no adverse change to the levels of significance assessed when considering the Mona Offshore Wind Project in isolation. Cumulative effects with other plans are anticipated to enhance beneficial effects including supporting employment, GVA, and supply chain demand, and associated employment opportunities for residents.

1.9.4.13 No transboundary effects with regard to socio-economics and community from the Mona Offshore Wind Project on the interest of other States have been predicted.

1.9.5 Human health ​

1.9.5.1 The health assessment is informed by the findings of other PEIR chapters, including on commercial fisheries; shipping and navigation; seascape, landscape and visual resources; transport and traffic; noise and vibration; other sea users, climate change; and socio-economics and community. The health assessment has also been informed by a review of relevant public health evidence sources, including scientific literature, baseline data, health policy, local health priorities and health protection standards.

1.9.5.2 An overall baseline health profile was gathered for Wales, Isle of Man, and North West England using publicly available public health evidence. This data shows that compared to Wales, the health study area in North Wales has similar rates of healthy life expectancy. There is slightly poorer health outcomes on the Isle of Man compared to England. For example, healthy life expectancy on the Isle of Man is similar for males but slightly lower for females compared to England. Public health data also indicate poorer health outcomes in the North West region compared to England. Socio-economic conditions and other health determinants are typically worse in the North West compared to England. For example, there is a higher percentage of children in relative and absolute low- income families compared to the England average. The indicators confirm elevated sensitivity, particularly for vulnerable groups, on several measures.

1.9.5.3 The following health effects of the Mona Offshore Wind Project have been considered:

• Transport modes, access and connections in relation to commercial operators including strategic routes and lifeline ferries to the Isle of Man will have a minor adverse effect for population health, which is not significant in EIA terms. Following mitigation, that would be reported in the Environmental Statement, which would include additional controls (see volume 2, chapter 12: Shipping and navigation of the PEIR) the residual effect is expected to be negligible (not significant).
• Transport modes, access and connections in relation to construction works may disrupt local vehicle traffic and active travel. The effects of this are minor adverse significance, which is not significant in EIA terms.
• Community identity, culture, resilience and influence in relation to visual impacts of the wind turbines will have a minor adverse and minor beneficial effect which is not significant in EIA terms.
• Open space, leisure and play, offshore and onshore construction works leading to disruption of recreation and leisure will have a minor adverse effect which is not significant in EIA terms.
• Employment and income in relation to loss or restricted access to commercial fishing grounds will have a minor adverse effect for population health, which is not significant in EIA terms.
• Noise and vibration related to construction, operations, maintenance and decommissioning of the Mona Offshore Wind Project will have a minor adverse effect (not significant).
• Radiation in relation to risk perception of EMF is expected to produce a minor adverse (not significant) effect. Following adoption of mitigation strategies for communication with local communities about EMF regulatory standards and risks of the Mona Offshore Wind Project, the residual effect is expected to be negligible (not significant).
• Climate change and adaptation in relation to renewable energy generation and subsequent reduced greenhouse gas emissions will have a minor beneficial effect for population health, which is not significant in EIA.
• Wider societal infrastructure and resources in relation to renewable energy generation will have a moderate beneficial effect for population health, which is significant in EIA terms.

1.9.5.4 Overall, it is concluded that there will be no significant adverse effects arising from the Mona Offshore Wind Project during the construction, operations and maintenance or decommissioning phases. Significant public health benefits in relation to energy security are expected for population health in the operational phase.

1.9.5.5 The cumulative impacts assessed include combined effects on access to the Isle of Man and in relation to commercial fisheries. Overall it is concluded that there will be the following significant cumulative effects from the Mona Offshore Wind Project alongside other projects:

• Transport modes, access and connections in relation to commercial operators including strategic routes and lifeline ferries to the Isle of Man will have a cumulative moderate adverse effect for population health, which is significant in EIA terms. Following mitigation, that would be reported in the Environmental Statement, which would include additional controls (see volume 2, chapter 12: Shipping and navigation of the PEIR) the residual effect is expected to be minor adverse (not significant).
• Wider societal infrastructure and resources in relation to renewable energy generation will have a moderate beneficial effect for population health, which is significant in EIA terms.

1.9.5.6 No potential transboundary impacts have been identified in regard to effects of the Mona Offshore Wind Project.

1.9.5.7 The population health effects identified and assessed in this chapter have the potential to interact with each other. Having had regard to the nature of the interactions and the degree to which the same people are likely to be affected, the conclusion is that any combined effects are not expected to be of greater significance than the individual effects.

1.9.5.8 Overall, the public health conclusion is that there are a range of beneficial and adverse effects, with more likely significant effects that are beneficial than there are those that are adverse.